President Trump says we’re really close to getting a trade deal soon. Chinese President Xi says the same.
Is this the time it happens for real? Are we actually going to see a phase one deal before the year is done?
Maybe, maybe not. Don’t forget that a few days ago, the trade deal was off. And before that, it was on.
And then it was off again two weeks ago.
But now, things are looking good according to Trump, the master of manipulation himself. This is the same guy who got Sen. Elizabeth Warren to out her Native American heritage, or distinct lack thereof.
I’ve got something to tell you:
There will be plenty more trade war “flip-flops” before any tariffs are permanently removed.
And so, while the posturing continues, I decided to look at stocks that aren’t so influenced by the general market. These are often companies tied to some sort of commodity. In this case, I analyzed a stock connected to oil, a commodity that’s had an odd journey in 2019.
In the daily candlestick chart above, you can see that the infamous Marathon Oil Group (NYSE: MRO) is starting to break out of choppy, sideways moving trend. The going has been slow since October, but MRO has steadily risen, setting several higher lows along the way.
A few weeks ago, after topping out at a monthly high, MRO sold off, but still managed to set another higher low. Because of that, and contact with the lower Bollinger Band, MRO deserved a closer look. As luck would have it, since setting that monthly high, it also generated a solid downwards trendline.
And today, a breakout past that trendline occurred.
Because of that, it might make sense to go long slightly above the current high, at a trade trigger of $12.30. Even if the market tanks next week on some bad trade war news (something we’ve seen before), MRO could still end up rising as oil prices tick higher too.
That, in essence, makes this a trade war-resistant stock in many ways, with a great long setup to boot. Short-term traders willing to take a chance on MRO might just find that disengaging from the market-wide “noise” could snag some easy gains.
All while the trade war rhetoric gets turned up to 11.